Fire SuitedTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
8
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50
15-33-2
overall winrate
32.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.4%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
41.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1258
· median 1211
· range 1049–1432
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
62% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 37.0% | -7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.4% | -15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 27.0% | -11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -19.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 74.1% | +13.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.5% | -20.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.9% | +28.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.8 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
